Battle for the Arctic

Given the latest geopolitical uncertainty over the future of Greenland, I have been enjoying re-reading the "Future of Arctic Marine Navigation...", a 2008 report written by my former colleagues at Global Business Network (GBN), in partnership with the Arctic Council. 

Of the four long-term scenarios they created (looking out to 2050), "Arctic Race" is the one that seems to resonate the most right now. This was an imagined world of "high demand for resources and unstable governance, that set the stage for a 'no holds barred' rush for Arctic wealth and resources. Political tensions are high, and brinkmanship is the name of the game."

While there is no mention of a man called Trump threatening to invade Greenland, such an event (albeit extreme) is plausible and consistent with this scenario logic.

Some may remember that the report was lampooned on US national television by Stephen Colbert, for including some of the more fantastical elements of the scenarios, most notably the presence of "ice rangers". Sadly, we are not laughing as loudly today.

Hat tip to the great work by Stewart Brand, Lynn Carruthers, Bertram Chan, Matthew Ranen, Peter Schwartz and Erik Smith.