Have we passed "Peak Europe"?
- Nick Turner
- Jun 12
- 3 min read
This was one of the questions posed at the recent SQUARE 2025 real estate conference in Ibiza. Senior property professionals, from across Europe, met at this exclusive, yet inclusive, gathering to consider "The art of uncertainty; strategies to face the unknown!".
First up, we heard from a number of world renowned macro / geopolitical commentators, including Gideon Rachman from the Financial Times, Alice Han of Greemantle and Ayham Kamel. An emerging thesis implied we have indeed passed "Peak Europe" and the concept of "The West" as we have known it no longer exists. Further more, Beijing perceives President Trump's current volatile antics as weakness and an indication of the decline of the American Empire. Europe, meanwhile, is drowning in it's own bureacracy, unable to escape red tape, inertia and its deeply conservative (small 'c') values.
But is this true? And if it is, is there anything to be done? Collectively and in breakout teams, we explored four different scenarios for the potential future(s) of Europe over the next five years (2025-2030). We analysed four very different but plausible futures, using a framework built around the following two crtiical uncertianties:
The role of Europe on the global geopolitical stage - increasingly central or peripheral / irrelavant
European inflation (as a proxy for the health of the economy) - either under or increasingly out of control
The summary narratives of the resultant four scenarios:
A: "EU Who?": Ageing EU loses relevance and is left "home alone"
US economy focuses inward, cutting global ties
BRICs deepen collaboration & partnership
Inflation low & rates under control due to weaker growth
UK lost into the deep divide between EU & US
EU politicians disunited & divided
B: "Renaissance 2.0?": A resurgent EU is back on the global stage but at what cost?
US/EU relations stabilise, UK acts as effective bridge
China is the common competitor / “enemy”
Stable growth returns responding to falling rates
Collaboration & innovation drives EU productivity
AI helps deliver growth & net zero but erodes employment
C: "All for one & one for all": EU resilient as social contract delivers
US loses global economic & political leadership
Tariffs hinder inter-regional trade, increasing price
Inflation driven higher by govt. deficits on social / green agenda
EU / UK repair relations forming co-operative bloc
NATO becomes European Treaty Organisation (EUTO)
D: "Dark ages": The Russian Bear is at Europe’s door…
Rising protectionism, tariff wars & trade barriers
Friction leads to inflation & higher rates
EU in deficit, fractured & fractious
“Stagflation” returns, net zero abandoned
Everyone for themselves, NATO flounders
Once teams were allocated to their scenario (which they had to consider as THE future), delegates were presented with c.30 option cards, spanning seven different policy areas, from fiscal to investment, from trade to immigration and from energy to financial. In order to spice up the debate, Deepsearch Labs had also trained its AI avatar "Gabriel", to compete, picking the "optimal strategy" to maximse GDP and the health of the European real estate sector in each scenario considered.
The concluding presentations were brief but insightful. Consistent across all scenarios was the need to quash bureacracy, open up and level set capital markets and align real estate regulation across the Union.
A "winner" was decided by popular vote for each scenario. While Gabriel never came top, he did come close. More interestlingly, the policies he chose for each scenario were meaningfully different and very coherent to each different macro environment. Proof, if it were needed, that AI's ability to make important decisions in a complex and uncertain environment is already impressive. One can ony imagine what is to come. Perhaps I should ask Gabriel!
Finally, asked which scenario the delegates thought most likely to unfold over the next five years, "EU who" was a resourding winner. Pessimistic about Europe's role on the stage perhaps but no where near as doom-laden as Gabriel. He choose "Dark Ages".
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